CERES, Probabilistic Famine Early Warning: 90-day IPC Phase 3+ forecasts for 43 high-risk countries, scheduled weekly.

CERES
CERESFamine Early Warning · HGE Adapter #5
LAST UPDATED: 12 OCT 2026 · 90-DAY HORIZON · IPC PHASE 3+ THRESHOLDNorthflow Technologies · Open Humanitarian Intelligence
DashboardMethodologyData SourcesValidationAbout
LATEST RUN 12 Oct 2026 · 43 REGIONS
90-Day Famine Risk: Active Monitoring
IPC Phase 3+ probability · Logistic model + sensitivity intervals
Data: NASA POWER · MODIS NDVI · UCDP GED · IPC / CH · WFP prices
Ref: 12 Oct 2026 · HGE v1.0
Risk Classification
Critical (≥ 70%)
Warning (45% up to 70%)
Watch (< 45%)
Northflow CERES · HGE · Open Humanitarian Intelligence · 2026