CERES
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Prospective Verification Ledger

Validation

Every CERES prediction is timestamped, publicly recorded, and graded at T+90 days against the FEWS NET proxy described in the Methodology. This page is the permanent public record of what CERES predicted, when, and whether it was right.

Accuracy Metrics
● Live · 143 graded
Brier Score
0.1905
Target < 0.10
SI Coverage (90%)
84.6%
Target > 88% Not yet assessed
Brier Skill Score
-0.030
Target > 0
Total Predictions
1,376
Issued to date

Live data. Metrics computed from 143 predictions graded against the FEWS NET proxy at T+90 days. This record updates automatically.

Pending Verification

Predictions Awaiting Grading Window

473 pending
RegionIssuedTierP(IPC 3+)90% SIGrades On
Afghanistan2026-08-03TIER-173.5%[56.4%-85.8%]2026-11-01
Burundi2026-08-03TIER-267.6%[49.8%-81.8%]2026-11-01
Burkina Faso2026-08-03TIER-266.0%[48.2%-80.7%]2026-11-01
Bangladesh2026-08-03TIER-337.2%[23.7%-54.0%]2026-11-01
Central African Republic2026-08-03TIER-251.8%[35.4%-68.7%]2026-11-01
Cameroon2026-08-03TIER-252.6%[36.0%-69.5%]2026-11-01
DR Congo2026-08-03TIER-267.8%[50.1%-82.0%]2026-11-01
Djibouti2026-08-03TIER-317.8%[11.5%-26.8%]2026-11-01
Eritrea2026-08-03TIER-31.1%[1.1%-1.2%]2026-11-01
Ethiopia2026-08-03TIER-177.7%[61.7%-88.6%]2026-11-01
Gambia2026-08-03TIER-328.7%[17.2%-44.2%]2026-11-01
Guinea-Bissau2026-08-03TIER-327.5%[16.4%-42.9%]2026-11-01
Guatemala2026-08-03TIER-331.8%[19.3%-47.9%]2026-11-01
Honduras2026-08-03TIER-330.1%[18.2%-46.1%]2026-11-01
Haiti2026-08-03TIER-177.7%[61.8%-88.6%]2026-11-01
Iraq2026-08-03TIER-31.7%[1.6%-1.9%]2026-11-01
Kenya2026-08-03TIER-170.4%[53.0%-83.8%]2026-11-01
Lesotho2026-08-03TIER-333.5%[20.4%-49.9%]2026-11-01
Madagascar2026-08-03TIER-31.1%[1.1%-1.2%]2026-11-01
Mali2026-08-03TIER-264.2%[46.3%-79.3%]2026-11-01
Myanmar2026-08-03TIER-39.9%[6.9%-14.3%]2026-11-01
Mozambique2026-08-03TIER-269.4%[51.1%-83.6%]2026-11-01
Mauritania2026-08-03TIER-329.0%[17.4%-44.5%]2026-11-01
Malawi2026-08-03TIER-253.7%[35.9%-70.5%]2026-11-01
Nigeria2026-08-03TIER-268.4%[50.7%-82.4%]2026-11-01
Niger2026-08-03TIER-329.2%[19.9%-41.3%]2026-11-01
Pakistan2026-08-03TIER-179.1%[63.6%-89.4%]2026-11-01
Palestine2026-08-03TIER-182.0%[66.8%-91.3%]2026-11-01
Rwanda2026-08-03TIER-33.3%[2.8%-4.0%]2026-11-01
Sudan2026-08-03TIER-182.6%[68.2%-91.5%]2026-11-01
Senegal2026-08-03TIER-323.8%[14.3%-37.7%]2026-11-01
El Salvador2026-08-03TIER-329.5%[17.7%-45.3%]2026-11-01
Somalia2026-08-03TIER-176.9%[60.7%-88.0%]2026-11-01
South Sudan2026-08-03TIER-177.1%[61.0%-88.2%]2026-11-01
Eswatini2026-08-03TIER-332.1%[19.5%-48.3%]2026-11-01
Syria2026-08-03TIER-343.3%[31.3%-55.8%]2026-11-01
Chad2026-08-03TIER-328.1%[17.2%-43.2%]2026-11-01
Tanzania2026-08-03TIER-313.8%[9.1%-20.9%]2026-11-01
Uganda2026-08-03TIER-337.5%[24.0%-54.1%]2026-11-01
Venezuela2026-08-03TIER-38.6%[6.4%-11.8%]2026-11-01
Yemen2026-08-03TIER-177.4%[61.4%-88.4%]2026-11-01
Zambia2026-08-03TIER-329.4%[17.7%-45.1%]2026-11-01
Zimbabwe2026-08-03TIER-31.3%[1.3%-1.4%]2026-11-01
Afghanistan2026-08-10TIER-339.3%[28.0%-52.3%]2026-11-08
Burundi2026-08-10TIER-38.9%[7.1%-11.1%]2026-11-08
Burkina Faso2026-08-10TIER-39.7%[6.8%-14.0%]2026-11-08
Bangladesh2026-08-10TIER-35.0%[4.2%-6.2%]2026-11-08
Central African Republic2026-08-10TIER-315.2%[11.0%-21.0%]2026-11-08
Cameroon2026-08-10TIER-35.3%[4.4%-6.6%]2026-11-08
DR Congo2026-08-10TIER-332.6%[22.9%-44.8%]2026-11-08

Showing the 50 due soonest of 473.

Awaiting Outcome Data

Grading Window Open: Outcome Data Pending

530 in grading queue
These predictions have passed their T+90 horizon and entered the grading queue. They are graded against the FEWS NET proxy, never against forecasts, and a grade is written when the data for the grading window lands.
RegionIssuedP(IPC 3+)Horizon Reached
Zimbabwe2026-07-311.3%2026-10-29
Zambia2026-07-3129.4%2026-10-29
Yemen2026-07-3177.4%2026-10-29
Venezuela2026-07-311.6%2026-10-29
Uganda2026-07-3137.5%2026-10-29
Tanzania2026-07-3113.8%2026-10-29
Chad2026-07-3128.1%2026-10-29
Syria2026-07-3112.1%2026-10-29
Eswatini2026-07-3131.5%2026-10-29
South Sudan2026-07-3177.1%2026-10-29
Somalia2026-07-3176.9%2026-10-29
El Salvador2026-07-3129.5%2026-10-29
Senegal2026-07-3123.8%2026-10-29
Sudan2026-07-3190.0%2026-10-29
Rwanda2026-07-311.5%2026-10-29
Palestine2026-07-3182.0%2026-10-29
Pakistan2026-07-3116.3%2026-10-29
Niger2026-07-3111.7%2026-10-29
Nigeria2026-07-319.7%2026-10-29
Malawi2026-07-314.3%2026-10-29
Mauritania2026-07-311.6%2026-10-29
Mozambique2026-07-3111.7%2026-10-29
Myanmar2026-07-319.9%2026-10-29
Mali2026-07-319.7%2026-10-29
Madagascar2026-07-311.5%2026-10-29
Lesotho2026-07-311.7%2026-10-29
Kenya2026-07-319.7%2026-10-29
Iraq2026-07-311.7%2026-10-29
Haiti2026-07-3110.4%2026-10-29
Honduras2026-07-311.6%2026-10-29
Guatemala2026-07-311.3%2026-10-29
Guinea-Bissau2026-07-311.1%2026-10-29
Gambia2026-07-311.1%2026-10-29
Ethiopia2026-07-3114.1%2026-10-29
Eritrea2026-07-311.1%2026-10-29
Djibouti2026-07-311.5%2026-10-29
DR Congo2026-07-319.7%2026-10-29
Cameroon2026-07-315.9%2026-10-29
Central African Republic2026-07-314.4%2026-10-29
Bangladesh2026-07-312.1%2026-10-29
Burkina Faso2026-07-319.7%2026-10-29
Burundi2026-07-3110.9%2026-10-29
Afghanistan2026-07-3110.8%2026-10-29
Zimbabwe2026-07-1344.5%2026-10-11
Zambia2026-07-1332.1%2026-10-11
Yemen2026-07-1382.2%2026-10-11
Venezuela2026-07-131.7%2026-10-11
Uganda2026-07-1330.3%2026-10-11
Tanzania2026-07-1314.7%2026-10-11
Chad2026-07-1329.2%2026-10-11

Showing the 50 most recent of 530.

Public Prediction Ledger

Graded Predictions: Forward Validation

143 graded · T+90 days
RegionIssuedTierP(IPC 3+)ObservedBrierSISource
Kenya2026-04-27TIER-175.2%Phase 30.0613InFEWS NET proxy
Malawi2026-04-13TIER-253.3%Phase 20.2837InFEWS NET proxy
Malawi2026-04-20TIER-331.5%Phase 20.0990InFEWS NET proxy
Malawi2026-04-27TIER-331.5%Phase 20.0990InFEWS NET proxy
South Sudan2026-04-16TIER-186.5%Phase 40.0183InFEWS NET proxy
South Sudan2026-04-20TIER-186.5%Phase 40.0183InFEWS NET proxy
Chad2026-04-16TIER-329.2%Phase 30.5011OutFEWS NET proxy
Chad2026-04-20TIER-329.2%Phase 30.5011OutFEWS NET proxy
Yemen2026-04-16TIER-182.2%Phase 40.0318InFEWS NET proxy
Yemen2026-04-20TIER-182.2%Phase 40.0318InFEWS NET proxy
Zimbabwe2026-04-20TIER-344.5%Phase 20.1981InFEWS NET proxy
Malawi2026-04-07TIER-253.3%Phase 20.2837InFEWS NET proxy
Chad2026-04-13TIER-340.5%Phase 30.3543InFEWS NET proxy
Yemen2026-04-13TIER-188.7%Phase 40.0127InFEWS NET proxy
Yemen2026-04-27TIER-182.2%Phase 40.0318InFEWS NET proxy
Kenya2026-04-16TIER-175.2%Phase 30.0613InFEWS NET proxy
South Sudan2026-04-27TIER-186.5%Phase 40.0183InFEWS NET proxy
Chad2026-04-27TIER-329.2%Phase 30.5011OutFEWS NET proxy
Zimbabwe2026-04-27TIER-344.5%Phase 20.1981InFEWS NET proxy
Kenya2026-04-20TIER-175.2%Phase 30.0613InFEWS NET proxy
Zimbabwe2026-04-16TIER-344.5%Phase 20.1981InFEWS NET proxy
Afghanistan2026-04-07TIER-187.3%Phase 30.0161InFEWS NET proxy
Afghanistan2026-04-13TIER-187.3%Phase 30.0160InFEWS NET proxy
Afghanistan2026-04-16TIER-182.1%Phase 30.0321InFEWS NET proxy
Afghanistan2026-04-20TIER-182.1%Phase 30.0321InFEWS NET proxy
Afghanistan2026-04-27TIER-182.1%Phase 30.0321InFEWS NET proxy
Burundi2026-04-07TIER-248.8%Phase 20.2384InFEWS NET proxy
Burundi2026-04-13TIER-245.3%Phase 20.2048InFEWS NET proxy
Burundi2026-04-16TIER-339.4%Phase 20.1554InFEWS NET proxy
Burundi2026-04-20TIER-339.4%Phase 20.1554InFEWS NET proxy
Burundi2026-04-27TIER-339.4%Phase 20.1554InFEWS NET proxy
Burkina Faso2026-04-07TIER-183.9%Phase 30.0259InFEWS NET proxy
Burkina Faso2026-04-13TIER-183.9%Phase 30.0259InFEWS NET proxy
Burkina Faso2026-04-16TIER-269.6%Phase 30.0922InFEWS NET proxy
Burkina Faso2026-04-20TIER-269.6%Phase 30.0922InFEWS NET proxy
Burkina Faso2026-04-27TIER-269.6%Phase 30.0922InFEWS NET proxy
Central African Republic2026-04-07TIER-173.1%Phase 30.0723InFEWS NET proxy
Central African Republic2026-04-13TIER-173.1%Phase 30.0723InFEWS NET proxy
Central African Republic2026-04-16TIER-263.8%Phase 30.1313InFEWS NET proxy
Central African Republic2026-04-20TIER-263.8%Phase 30.1313InFEWS NET proxy
Central African Republic2026-04-27TIER-263.8%Phase 30.1313InFEWS NET proxy
Cameroon2026-04-07TIER-172.5%Phase 30.0757InFEWS NET proxy
Cameroon2026-04-13TIER-172.5%Phase 30.0757InFEWS NET proxy
Cameroon2026-04-16TIER-256.3%Phase 30.1908InFEWS NET proxy
Cameroon2026-04-20TIER-256.3%Phase 30.1908InFEWS NET proxy
Cameroon2026-04-27TIER-256.3%Phase 30.1908InFEWS NET proxy
DR Congo2026-04-07TIER-185.3%Phase 30.0217InFEWS NET proxy
DR Congo2026-04-13TIER-185.3%Phase 30.0217InFEWS NET proxy
DR Congo2026-04-16TIER-171.5%Phase 30.0813InFEWS NET proxy
DR Congo2026-04-20TIER-171.5%Phase 30.0813InFEWS NET proxy
DR Congo2026-04-27TIER-171.5%Phase 30.0813InFEWS NET proxy
Guatemala2026-04-07TIER-344.8%Phase 30.3053InFEWS NET proxy
Guatemala2026-04-13TIER-344.8%Phase 30.3053InFEWS NET proxy
Guatemala2026-04-16TIER-333.0%Phase 30.4485OutFEWS NET proxy
Guatemala2026-04-20TIER-333.0%Phase 30.4485OutFEWS NET proxy
Guatemala2026-04-27TIER-333.0%Phase 30.4485OutFEWS NET proxy
Honduras2026-04-07TIER-255.9%Phase 30.1948InFEWS NET proxy
Honduras2026-04-13TIER-255.9%Phase 30.1948InFEWS NET proxy
Honduras2026-04-16TIER-338.0%Phase 30.3844InFEWS NET proxy
Honduras2026-04-20TIER-333.3%Phase 30.4454OutFEWS NET proxy
Honduras2026-04-27TIER-338.0%Phase 30.3844InFEWS NET proxy
Haiti2026-04-07TIER-190.5%Phase 40.0090InFEWS NET proxy
Haiti2026-04-13TIER-190.5%Phase 40.0090InFEWS NET proxy
Haiti2026-04-16TIER-179.4%Phase 40.0424InFEWS NET proxy
Haiti2026-04-20TIER-179.4%Phase 40.0424InFEWS NET proxy
Haiti2026-04-27TIER-179.4%Phase 40.0424InFEWS NET proxy
Kenya2026-04-13TIER-183.3%Phase 30.0279InFEWS NET proxy
Lesotho2026-04-07TIER-333.3%Phase 20.1111InFEWS NET proxy
Lesotho2026-04-13TIER-333.3%Phase 20.1111InFEWS NET proxy
Lesotho2026-04-16TIER-319.0%Phase 20.0361InFEWS NET proxy
Lesotho2026-04-20TIER-319.0%Phase 20.0361InFEWS NET proxy
Lesotho2026-04-27TIER-319.0%Phase 20.0361InFEWS NET proxy
Madagascar2026-04-07TIER-31.1%Phase 20.0001InFEWS NET proxy
Madagascar2026-04-13TIER-31.1%Phase 20.0001InFEWS NET proxy
Madagascar2026-04-16TIER-31.1%Phase 20.0001InFEWS NET proxy
Madagascar2026-04-20TIER-31.1%Phase 20.0001InFEWS NET proxy
Madagascar2026-04-27TIER-31.1%Phase 20.0001InFEWS NET proxy
Mali2026-04-07TIER-182.5%Phase 40.0306InFEWS NET proxy
Mali2026-04-13TIER-182.5%Phase 40.0306InFEWS NET proxy
Mali2026-04-16TIER-267.8%Phase 40.1037InFEWS NET proxy
Mali2026-04-20TIER-267.8%Phase 40.1037InFEWS NET proxy
Mali2026-04-27TIER-267.8%Phase 40.1037InFEWS NET proxy
Mozambique2026-04-07TIER-184.3%Phase 30.0246InFEWS NET proxy
Mozambique2026-04-13TIER-184.3%Phase 30.0246InFEWS NET proxy
Mozambique2026-04-16TIER-174.3%Phase 30.0660InFEWS NET proxy
Mozambique2026-04-20TIER-174.3%Phase 30.0660InFEWS NET proxy
Mozambique2026-04-27TIER-174.3%Phase 30.0660InFEWS NET proxy
Malawi2026-04-16TIER-331.5%Phase 20.0990InFEWS NET proxy
Nigeria2026-04-07TIER-185.0%Phase 40.0224InFEWS NET proxy
Nigeria2026-04-13TIER-185.0%Phase 40.0224InFEWS NET proxy
Nigeria2026-04-16TIER-171.2%Phase 40.0831InFEWS NET proxy
Nigeria2026-04-20TIER-171.2%Phase 40.0831InFEWS NET proxy
Nigeria2026-04-27TIER-171.2%Phase 40.0831InFEWS NET proxy
Niger2026-04-07TIER-247.5%Phase 30.2756InFEWS NET proxy
Niger2026-04-13TIER-247.5%Phase 30.2756InFEWS NET proxy
Niger2026-04-16TIER-315.4%Phase 30.7149OutFEWS NET proxy
Niger2026-04-20TIER-315.4%Phase 30.7149OutFEWS NET proxy
Niger2026-04-27TIER-315.4%Phase 30.7149OutFEWS NET proxy
Pakistan2026-04-07TIER-188.1%Phase 30.0142InFEWS NET proxy
Pakistan2026-04-13TIER-188.1%Phase 30.0142InFEWS NET proxy
Pakistan2026-04-16TIER-181.3%Phase 30.0351InFEWS NET proxy
Pakistan2026-04-20TIER-181.3%Phase 30.0351InFEWS NET proxy
Pakistan2026-04-27TIER-181.3%Phase 30.0351InFEWS NET proxy
Sudan2026-04-07TIER-189.9%Phase 40.0103InFEWS NET proxy
Sudan2026-04-13TIER-189.9%Phase 40.0103InFEWS NET proxy
Sudan2026-04-16TIER-178.3%Phase 40.0469InFEWS NET proxy
Sudan2026-04-20TIER-178.3%Phase 40.0469InFEWS NET proxy
Sudan2026-04-27TIER-178.3%Phase 40.0469InFEWS NET proxy
El Salvador2026-04-07TIER-255.2%Phase 20.3045InFEWS NET proxy
El Salvador2026-04-13TIER-255.2%Phase 20.3045InFEWS NET proxy
El Salvador2026-04-16TIER-337.5%Phase 20.1403InFEWS NET proxy
El Salvador2026-04-20TIER-332.8%Phase 20.1075InFEWS NET proxy
El Salvador2026-04-27TIER-337.5%Phase 20.1403InFEWS NET proxy
Somalia2026-04-07TIER-186.3%Phase 40.0189InFEWS NET proxy
Somalia2026-04-13TIER-186.3%Phase 40.0189InFEWS NET proxy
Somalia2026-04-16TIER-172.9%Phase 40.0733InFEWS NET proxy
Somalia2026-04-20TIER-172.9%Phase 40.0733InFEWS NET proxy
Somalia2026-04-27TIER-172.9%Phase 40.0733InFEWS NET proxy
South Sudan2026-04-07TIER-191.9%Phase 40.0066InFEWS NET proxy
South Sudan2026-04-13TIER-191.9%Phase 40.0066InFEWS NET proxy
Syria2026-04-07TIER-247.5%Phase 30.2756InFEWS NET proxy
Syria2026-04-13TIER-325.7%Phase 30.5515OutFEWS NET proxy
Syria2026-04-16TIER-330.2%Phase 30.4869OutFEWS NET proxy
Syria2026-04-20TIER-315.2%Phase 30.7198OutFEWS NET proxy
Syria2026-04-27TIER-311.7%Phase 30.7795OutFEWS NET proxy
Uganda2026-04-07TIER-342.1%Phase 30.3356InFEWS NET proxy
Uganda2026-04-13TIER-342.1%Phase 30.3356InFEWS NET proxy
Uganda2026-04-16TIER-330.3%Phase 30.4851OutFEWS NET proxy
Uganda2026-04-20TIER-330.3%Phase 30.4851OutFEWS NET proxy
Uganda2026-04-27TIER-330.3%Phase 30.4851OutFEWS NET proxy
Venezuela2026-04-07TIER-32.0%Phase 30.9608OutFEWS NET proxy
Venezuela2026-04-13TIER-32.5%Phase 30.9508OutFEWS NET proxy
Venezuela2026-04-16TIER-34.1%Phase 30.9191OutFEWS NET proxy
Venezuela2026-04-20TIER-31.7%Phase 30.9663OutFEWS NET proxy
Venezuela2026-04-27TIER-31.7%Phase 30.9663OutFEWS NET proxy
Yemen2026-04-07TIER-188.7%Phase 40.0127InFEWS NET proxy
Zambia2026-04-07TIER-254.2%Phase 20.2934InFEWS NET proxy
Zambia2026-04-13TIER-254.2%Phase 20.2934InFEWS NET proxy
Zambia2026-04-16TIER-332.1%Phase 20.1030InFEWS NET proxy
Zambia2026-04-20TIER-332.1%Phase 20.1030InFEWS NET proxy
Zambia2026-04-27TIER-332.1%Phase 20.1030InFEWS NET proxy
Zimbabwe2026-04-07TIER-263.7%Phase 20.4054InFEWS NET proxy
Zimbabwe2026-04-13TIER-263.7%Phase 20.4054InFEWS NET proxy
Withdrawn From The Score

Forecasts We Ruled Out, And Why

172 of 1,376 issued · 12.5%
The first four runs used inputs that could fall back to mock data, incomplete conflict data and hardcoded country fallback values. Every forecast from those runs is struck out. The forecasts are still here with their original probabilities. They are excluded from every metric on this page. A withdrawal is permanent and dated. The grounds below summarise what was recorded with each one.
Run IssuedForecastsRegionsWithdrawn OnGrounds (Summary)
2026-03-0943432026-07-31Rainfall and vegetation inputs could fall back to mock data until 6 April 2026. UCDP conflict data was missing for Somalia, Palestine, Yemen, Afghanistan and Syria until 30 March to 1 April 2026. Hardcoded country fallback values for IPC phase, food access and prices stayed in the input adapters until 7 April 2026.
2026-03-1643432026-07-31Rainfall and vegetation inputs could fall back to mock data until 6 April 2026. UCDP conflict data was missing for Somalia, Palestine, Yemen, Afghanistan and Syria until 30 March to 1 April 2026. Hardcoded country fallback values for IPC phase, food access and prices stayed in the input adapters until 7 April 2026.
2026-03-2343432026-07-31Rainfall and vegetation inputs could fall back to mock data until 6 April 2026. UCDP conflict data was missing for Somalia, Palestine, Yemen, Afghanistan and Syria until 30 March to 1 April 2026. Hardcoded country fallback values for IPC phase, food access and prices stayed in the input adapters until 7 April 2026.
2026-03-3043432026-07-31Rainfall and vegetation inputs could fall back to mock data until 6 April 2026. UCDP conflict data was missing for Somalia, Palestine, Yemen, Afghanistan and Syria until 30 March to 1 April 2026. Hardcoded country fallback values for IPC phase, food access and prices stayed in the input adapters until 7 April 2026.

Read the withdrawn forecasts as issued at /ledger/withdrawn.json.

Live Calibration · 143 Graded Predictions

Reliability Diagram · Brier = 0.1905

Calibration computed from graded predictions. Bins show the fraction of events that occurred (amber) against ideal calibration (grey). Each bin label is the predicted probability range.

Reliability Diagram · Predicted vs. Observed Probability
Perfect calibration lies on the diagonal. Points above = underconfident; below = overconfident.
0%0%20%20%40%40%60%60%80%80%100%100%Predicted ProbabilityPerfect56% (n=18)50% (n=28)54% (n=24)94% (n=36)100% (n=37)
Observed rate
Perfect calibration
Calibration by Predicted Probability Bin
0-20%
56% (18)
20-40%
50% (28)
40-60%
54% (24)
60-80%
94% (36)
80-100%
100% (37)

Grey = ideal calibration · Amber = CERES observed rate · (n) = predictions in bin

Brier Score Decomposition
Brier Score0.1905
Reliability0.0648
Resolution0.0614
Uncertainty0.1848
Skill Score (BSS)-0.0305
SI Coverage84.6%
Predictions graded143
Pre-Registered Calibration Protocol

What We Commit to Measuring

Table 1 from the CERES preprint. These metrics were pre-registered before any prospective outcome data was collected. No metrics will be selectively reported: all graded predictions remain permanently visible. Minimum sample sizes are fixed; targets cannot be revised retroactively.

MetricDefinitionMin. NTarget dateStatus
Brier ScoreMean (P̂₃ − O₃)²100 predictionsJun 2026Minimum reached
Brier Skill Score1 − BS / BS_climatology100 predictionsJun 2026Minimum reached
TIER-1 PrecisionTrue TIER-1 / all TIER-1 issued30 TIER-1 alertsSep 2026Minimum reached
TIER-1 RecallTrue TIER-1 / all Phase 4+ events10 Phase 4+ eventsSep 2026Minimum reached
Sensitivity interval coverageFraction outcomes in 90% interval200 predictionsSep 2026143 of 200
CRPS (ordered categorical)Full distribution vs IPC phase500 predictionsMar 2027143 of 500
Reliability diagramForecast prob. vs empirical frequency500 predictionsMar 2027143 of 500

Pre-registered in Pedersen (2026), Table 1. Protocol locked prior to accumulation of prospective outcome data. On this site TIER-1 precision counts alerts whose outcome reached Phase 3+, and TIER-1 recall counts Phase 4+ outcomes that had a TIER-1 alert.

The CERES Transparency Commitment

Every prediction CERES issues is permanently recorded in this ledger with a timestamp, probability estimate, 90% sensitivity interval, and T+90 day grading date. The published score and the TIER-1 counts recompute from the rows at /ledger/graded.json.