Forecasts are generated by the CERES pipeline using a composite weighted logistic model. Current scores reflect live data ingested from NASA POWER, MODIS NDVI, UCDP GED, IPC and Cadre Harmonisé, and WFP market prices. Model coefficients are expert-informed priors, not yet fit to graded outcomes. See the Methodology page for the coefficients. Probabilities represent the likelihood of escalation to IPC Phase 3 or above within 90 days from the reference date. Full methodology →