Published Runs
26
Since 7 Apr 2026
Regions Tracked
43
Monitored globally
Pending Grading
473
Before their T+90 date
Directional Agreement
72%
P(IPC 3+) on the side of 50% the outcome took, 143 graded
Risk Timeline Next to Grade (43) Verified Outcomes
Sudan 69.7%
Yemen 56.8%
Mozambique 51.9%
South Sudan 45.2%
Afghanistan 41.7%
Haiti 38.6%
Somalia 37.2%
DR Congo 32.6%
Ethiopia 29.2%
Palestine 28.8%
Mali 25.6%
Central African Republic 22.4%
Burundi 22.2%
Pakistan 20.6%
Kenya 16.9%
Niger 16.0%
Syria 15.4%
Uganda 15.1%
Burkina Faso 14.5%
Chad 13.9%
Nigeria 9.0%
Tanzania 7.7%
Guatemala 7.5%
Rwanda 6.9%
Cameroon 5.3%
Bangladesh 5.1%
Myanmar 4.5%
Eswatini 3.7%
Lesotho 3.5%
Honduras 3.3%
Djibouti 3.3%
Malawi 3.0%
Madagascar 2.9%
Mauritania 2.8%
Zambia 2.7%
El Salvador 2.5%
Venezuela 1.8%
Iraq 1.8%
Gambia 1.4%
Senegal 1.4%
Zimbabwe 1.3%
Eritrea 1.1%
Guinea-Bissau 1.1%
Sudan
SDN · Latest run 12 Oct 2026
69.7%
TIER-2 · SI [56.3%-80.6%]
P(IPC3+ / 90d), 25 published runs · 90% sensitivity interval (SI)
7 Apr 12 Oct
Run date
P(IPC3+)
SI Low
SI High
Tier
Drivers
12 Oct
69.7%
56.3%
80.6%
TIER-2
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
5 Oct
70.6%
57.3%
81.4%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
21 Sept
85.7%
75.3%
92.2%
TIER-1
CLIMATE, CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
14 Sept
85.7%
75.3%
92.2%
TIER-1
CLIMATE, CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
12 Sept
85.7%
75.3%
92.2%
TIER-1
CLIMATE, CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
10 Aug
71.3%
57.1%
82.3%
TIER-1
CLIMATE, CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
3 Aug
82.6%
68.2%
91.5%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
31 Jul
90.0%
79.9%
95.5%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
20 Jul
78.3%
62.3%
89.1%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
13 Jul
78.3%
62.3%
89.1%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
6 Jul
78.3%
62.3%
89.1%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
29 Jun
75.1%
58.4%
87.0%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
22 Jun
78.3%
62.3%
89.1%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
15 Jun
75.1%
58.4%
87.0%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
8 Jun
78.3%
62.3%
89.1%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
1 Jun
78.3%
62.3%
89.1%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
25 May
75.1%
58.4%
87.0%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
18 May
78.3%
62.3%
89.1%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
11 May
75.1%
58.4%
87.0%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
4 May
78.3%
62.3%
89.1%
TIER-1
CONFLICT, ECONOMIC
The public record is permanent
Every prediction on this page was issued before its outcome was known. Grading is automated: the system queries FEWS NET data after T+90 days and records the result. Brier scores and calibration metrics on the Validation page are derived directly from this ledger.