The public operational record of CERES, in numbers, read live from the prediction archive and the verification ledger. Forward accuracy is graded against the FEWS NET proxy.
Predictions issued counts single forecasts in the verification ledger, which also holds dates outside the published archive; published runs counts run dates in the prediction archive since 7 April 2026.
Published ledger figures, refreshed hourly. Full verification ledger and pre-registered protocol
Pre-positioning food aid and mobilising emergency logistics takes 60 to 90 days. CERES forecasts 90 days ahead, so that a warning arrives while there is still time to act on it.
CERES issues 90-day horizon predictions, each carrying a probability, a 90% sensitivity interval, and named driver causes. Every prediction is timestamped on issue and graded against the FEWS NET proxy after the T+90 date.
Grading trails the horizon, because the data for each window has to be published first. The figures above are read live from the verification ledger, against the pre-registered targets.
Every CERES prediction carries a T+90 grading date. When the data for that window is published, we compare our probabilistic forecast against the FEWS NET proxy for that country: the highest Current Situation phase FEWS NET reports for any of its areas within 30 days of the grading date.
Predictions are graded on: (1) whether our predicted tier matches the proxy phase, (2) whether the actual outcome fell within our 90% sensitivity interval, and (3) our Brier score, the standard probabilistic calibration metric used in meteorological forecasting.
This ledger is public, permanent, and updated automatically. View the full ledger →
CERES forecasts are available as open data under CC BY 4.0, for independent validation, academic research, or integration into existing EWS workflows.