Signal Coverage

Data Sources

CERES ingests eight open data streams covering rainfall, vegetation, conflict, food access, market prices, and displacement. All sources are publicly available. No proprietary data is used.

Climate
Conflict
Food Security
Displacement
CHIRPSClimate
Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data
Source ↗
Provider
UC Santa Barbara / USGS
Cadence
Dekadal (10-day)
Latency
~5 days
Variables Used
Precipitation anomalySPI-3SPI-6Rainfall deficit
Spatial Resolution
0.05°
MODIS NDVIClimate
Terra/Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer — Vegetation Index
Source ↗
Provider
NASA / USGS LPDAAC
Cadence
16-day composite
Latency
~8 days
Variables Used
NDVI anomalyVegetation stress indexGrowing season deviation
Spatial Resolution
250m / 500m
ACLEDConflict
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
Source ↗
Provider
ACLED
Cadence
Weekly
Latency
~3 days
Variables Used
Conflict events (4-week)Fatality countActor typeEvent type
Spatial Resolution
Point / Admin1 aggregate
FEWS NETFood Security
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Source ↗
Provider
USAID
Cadence
Monthly / Bi-annual
Latency
~14 days
Variables Used
IPC phase estimatesMarket pricesFood access outlookLivelihood stress
Spatial Resolution
Admin1
WFP VAMFood Security
World Food Programme Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping
Source ↗
Provider
WFP
Cadence
Monthly / mVAM surveys
Latency
~30 days
Variables Used
Food consumption scoreReduced coping strategy indexmVAM phone surveys
Spatial Resolution
Admin1 / Admin2
FAO GIEWSFood Security
Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture
Source ↗
Provider
FAO
Cadence
Monthly / Seasonal
Latency
~14 days
Variables Used
Crop production outlookCereal balance sheetsImport dependencyFood price index
Spatial Resolution
Country / Admin1
IPCFood Security
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Source ↗
Provider
IPC Global Platform
Cadence
Bi-annual
Latency
~60 days
Variables Used
Acute food insecurity phase (1–5)Population in each phaseArea phase classification
Spatial Resolution
Admin1 / Admin2
UNHCRDisplacement
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees — Displacement Data
Source ↗
Provider
UNHCR
Cadence
Monthly
Latency
~30 days
Variables Used
Forced displacement (IDPs)Refugee outflowsReturn movementsCamp population
Spatial Resolution
Country / Admin1
Pipeline Integration

How Each Signal Is Used

Each data stream feeds into a specific stage of the CERES pipeline. Sub-scores are combined into a composite stress score which drives the probabilistic forecast. See the Methodology page for full mathematical specification.

SignalRole in PipelineStage
CHIRPS SPI-3Drought stress sub-scoreStress scoring
MODIS NDVI anomalyVegetation stress sub-scoreStress scoring
ACLED conflict eventsConflict intensity sub-scoreStress scoring
FEWS NET IPC estimateIPC phase sub-scoreStress scoring
WFP VAM food accessFood access sub-scoreStress scoring
FEWS NET market pricesMarket deviation sub-scoreStress scoring
IPC cadre outcomeGround-truth for gradingCalibration (T+90d)
UNHCR displacementHGE hypothesis corroborationHypothesis generation
100% Open Data

Every source used by CERES is publicly available and free to access. No proprietary or licensed data is used in the pipeline.

Source Provenance

Every prediction stores the data retrieval timestamps for all eight sources. Full audit trail from raw signal to probability estimate.

Latency Transparency

Data latency for each source is published here. Known latency constraints are explicitly modelled as limitations in forecast uncertainty.