Changelog

Admin1 and Admin2 figures and the /subnational page are no longer published on the site. Forecasts are published at national level across 43 countries.

The model coefficients are expert-informed priors, specified with reference to 87 IPC transition records across 31 countries (2011-2023), and not yet fit to graded outcomes. The change of 11 March 2026 was a hand adjustment in the model code, and the coefficient values stated in that entry stand. This entry supersedes the description of the coefficients in the entries of 28 February and 11 March 2026.

The Methodology page writes the core model with the terms the forecasts use: composite stress, IPC phase, conflict, drought, food access, price, convergence and the number of independent sources. This entry supersedes the equation shown there before.

TIER-1 recall on the site counts Phase 4+ outcomes that had a TIER-1 alert. TIER-1 precision counts alerts that reached Phase 3+. Each figure says what it counts, and the TIER-1 counts recompute from /ledger/graded.json.

P(IPC 4+) and P(Famine) are no longer published on this site or in its data downloads, which carry P(IPC 3+) only. The current forecasts download from /ledger/latest.csv, HXL-tagged, and /ledger/regions.json.

A published run is a run date in the prediction archive since 7 April 2026, with at most one row per region. Run counts, charts and the published runs CSV all use this definition. This entry replaces the descriptions of the archive in the entries of 20 February and 2 March 2026.

Every figure on the Impact page now comes from the prediction archive and the verification ledger. The dashboard, Regions, Track Record, Validation and Impact pages carry live figures in their first page load.

The model reads NASA POWER rainfall, MODIS NDVI vegetation, UCDP GED conflict events, IPC and Cadre Harmonisé phase classifications through HDX HAPI, and WFP market prices through HDX HAPI. FEWS NET grades the forecasts and is not a model input. Tiers follow P(IPC 3+) alone: TIER-1 at 0.70 and above, TIER-2 from 0.45 up to but not including 0.70, TIER-3 below 0.45. This entry supersedes the input list of 27 February 2026 and the tier rule of 10 February 2026.

The IPC Phase 3+ coefficients from arXiv v1 were recalibrated against the first weeks of live data, so that the probabilities spread across the full range of country stress. New coefficients: intercept −4.50, composite_stress β 3.20, convergence_score β 1.40, n_independent β 0.20. The recalibrated model gives P = 0.036 to 0.994 across the monitored countries. The same coefficients apply to the Admin1, Admin2 and scenario models, and are documented in Appendix C of the preprint and on the Methodology page.

Added donor-facing /impact page with live activity statistics and downloadable datasets. Embeddable risk widget at /widget for partner org integration. Three CSV export endpoints: current predictions, full archive, and grading ledger. Public changelog added.

Comprehensive mobile CSS overrides across every page. Navigation, dashboard, subnational, validation, methodology, tracker, about and data pages all optimised for 320 to 768px viewports. Mobile bottom sheet for dashboard detail view. Hamburger menu confirmed functional.

Initial public release of CERES. Predictions issued at national level across 43 high-risk countries, with Admin1 disaggregation where data permits, including Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Yemen, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Haiti, Afghanistan, Syria, DRC, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. All predictions timestamped and graded at T+90 days.

Logistic regression model initialised with author-specified coefficients informed by 87 IPC transition records across 31 countries (2011-2023). Four back-validation cases (Somalia 2011, South Sudan 2017, Ethiopia 2022, Yemen 2021) used to verify directional plausibility. Input-perturbation resampling (n=2,000 replications) for 90% sensitivity intervals. All performance metrics (Brier score, SI coverage, Tier I precision/recall) are prospective targets. T+90 grading windows open June 2026 as the first predictions reach their horizon; because observed IPC outcomes publish on a 2-4 month lag, the first graded results are expected Aug-Oct 2026. See Validation page for live progress.

Pipeline ingests six core model inputs. Climate: CHIRPS dekadal precipitation (SPI-3, SPI-6, rainfall deficit) and MODIS NDVI 16-day composite (vegetation stress). Conflict: UCDP GED georeferenced events (4-week rolling, fatality count, actor type). Food: IPC acute food insecurity phase, WFP VAM food consumption score and rCSI, and FAO GIEWS market and cereal prices. Two supplementary sources support hypothesis corroboration without entering the model: FEWS NET outlooks as a cross-check and UNHCR Admin1 displacement data. Grading: IPC cadre outcomes at T+90.

CERES is built on the Hypothesis Generation Engine (HGE), developed by Northflow Technologies AS. HGE synthesises multi-source signals into ranked, evidenced, falsifiable hypotheses. CERES is Adapter #5. The same calibration standards, uncertainty quantification, and auditability requirements apply as to all HGE adapters.

Public API launched, now served at api.ceres.northflow.no. Endpoints: /v1/predictions (all regions + per-region), /v1/hypotheses (ranked driver hypotheses), /v1/admin1 (Admin1 stress signals), /v1/grades (grading ledger + aggregate metrics), /v1/archive (weekly snapshot history), /v1/export/hdx (HXL-tagged CSV for HDX).

Every weekly pipeline run archives a snapshot of all region predictions. The /tracker page displays the full time series per region with sparklines, trend indicators, and verification outcomes. Archive statistics: total runs, regions tracked, snapshot count, earliest run date.

CERES disaggregates crisis signals to Admin1 (province/state/region) level across the monitored Admin1 regions. The /subnational page displays composite stress scores and sub-scores (drought, conflict, food access, IPC stress, price stress) for all monitored administrative units. Sortable, filterable, downloadable.

TIER-1: P(IPC 3+) ≥ 0.70 or P(IPC 4+) ≥ 0.50, high-probability escalation within 90 days, immediate alert. TIER-2: P(IPC 3+) 0.45 to 0.69 or CRITICAL convergence, elevated risk, enhanced monitoring. TIER-3: P(IPC 3+) < 0.45, watch status. Thresholds author-specified at initialisation; prospective calibration ongoing as graded outcomes accumulate from August to October 2026.